#!/usr/bin/env python3 # -*- coding: utf-8 -*- """ 模块房光储 · 中美澳利润测算器 用法: python3 测算器.py # 输出全部报表 python3 测算器.py --fx 7.0 # 改汇率 所有参数集中在下方 CONFIG 区，供应商正式报价到位后回填即可复算。 """ import argparse, json # ============ 汇率 ============ FX = {"USD_CNY": 7.15, "AUD_CNY": 4.70} # ============ 采购价（¥/件，供应商正式报价到位后回填） ============ BUY = { "bat10": {"name":"磷酸铁锂储能电池 10kWh 壁挂(含BMS)","cny":6800,"kg":95, "cbm":0.13, "cat":"battery"}, "bat5": {"name":"磷酸铁锂储能电池 5kWh 壁挂(含BMS)", "cny":3700,"kg":52, "cbm":0.08, "cat":"battery"}, "inv_hyb5": {"name":"混合储能逆变器 5kW/48V", "cny":2900,"kg":12, "cbm":0.03, "cat":"inverter"}, "inv_hyb8": {"name":"混合储能逆变器 8kW/48V", "cny":4200,"kg":20, "cbm":0.05, "cat":"inverter"}, "pv550": {"name":"单晶光伏组件 550W", "cny": 420,"kg":27, "cbm":0.075,"cat":"pv"}, "bracket6": {"name":"光伏支架套件(6kW)", "cny": 900,"kg":60, "cbm":0.12, "cat":"bracket"}, "cable": {"name":"光伏电缆+MC4+直流箱+配电套件", "cny": 700,"kg":18, "cbm":0.04, "cat":"cable"}, "meter": {"name":"双向电表/CT+网关+防孤岛套件", "cny": 600,"kg": 3, "cbm":0.01, "cat":"meter"}, "ems": {"name":"EMS/铭牌/合规文件套件", "cny": 200,"kg": 1, "cbm":0.005,"cat":"ems"}, } # ============ 美国关税（2026-09 最乐观叠加口径，以 CBP 裁定为准） ============ US_DUTY = { "battery": 0.824, # MFN3.4% + 301 25% + 对等 54% "inverter":0.550, # 301 25% + 对等 30% "pv": 0.950, # 301 50% + 对等 30% + 232 15%（12/4起） "bracket": 0.800, # 232钢25% + 301 25% + 对等 30% "cable": 0.550, "meter":0.550, "ems":0.550, } AU_DUTY = 0.0 # ChAFTA 凭原产地证 0 关税 # ============ 海运（2026-08 市场） ============ FREIGHT = {"US": 7500, "AU": 3000} # 40HQ 整柜 USD CBM_40HQ, KG_40HQ = 68.0, 22000 # 40HQ 容积/限重 INSURANCE = 0.005 PACK = {"kg":1.08, "cbm":1.15} # 外箱包装系数 # ============ 配置 ============ CONF = { "A 10kWh+6.6kW": [("bat10",1),("inv_hyb5",1),("pv550",12),("bracket6",1),("cable",1),("meter",1),("ems",1)], "B 20kWh+10kW": [("bat10",2),("inv_hyb8",1),("pv550",18),("bracket6",2),("cable",1),("meter",1),("ems",1)], } POST = { # 目的国后端附加成本 "US": {"brokerage":250, "cert_amort_kit":900, "cert_amort_prefab":650, "prefab_labor":450}, "AU": {"brokerage":350, "cert_amort_kit":320, "cert_amort_prefab":240, "prefab_labor":380}, } RETAIL = { # 渠道零售/报价（市场区间中值） "US": {"A 10kWh+6.6kW":[6500,9500,14000], "B 20kWh+10kW":[9000,14000,22000]}, "AU": {"A 10kWh+6.6kW":[8000,15500,23000],"B 20kWh+10kW":[8000,15500,23000]}, } def bill(cfg_items, market): """返回一套系统的成本结构（目的国货币）""" fx = FX["USD_CNY"] if market=="US" else FX["AUD_CNY"] fob_cny = sum(BUY[k]["cny"]*q for k,q in cfg_items) kg = sum(BUY[k]["kg"]*q for k,q in cfg_items) * PACK["kg"] cbm = sum(BUY[k]["cbm"]*q for k,q in cfg_items) * PACK["cbm"] fr = FREIGHT[market] ship = max(cbm*fr/CBM_40HQ, kg*fr/KG_40HQ) # 拼柜按体积/重量取严分摊 fob = fob_cny/fx ins = fob*INSURANCE cif = fob + ship + ins if market=="US": duty = sum((BUY[k]["cny"]*q/fx)*US_DUTY[BUY[k]["cat"]] for k,q in cfg_items) else: duty = cif*AU_DUTY return dict(fob_cny=fob_cny, fob=fob, ship=ship, ins=ins, cif=cif, duty=duty, landed=cif+duty, kg=kg, cbm=cbm, sets_per_40hq=int(min(CBM_40HQ/cbm, KG_40HQ/kg))) def landed_total(b, market, mode): p = POST[market] extra = p["cert_amort_kit"] if mode=="kit" else p["cert_amort_prefab"] + p["prefab_labor"] return b["landed"] + p["brokerage"] + extra def report(market): cur = "$" if market=="US" else "A$" print("="*94) print(f"【{'🇺🇸 美国' if market=='US' else '🇦🇺 澳洲'}】成本与毛利 1USD={FX['USD_CNY']}CNY 1AUD={FX['AUD_CNY']}CNY" f" 运费40HQ {cur}{FREIGHT[market]:,}") print("="*94) for name, items in CONF.items(): b = bill(items, market) print(f"\n▌{name} 出厂价 ¥{b['fob_cny']:,} = {cur}{b['fob']:,.0f} 毛重 {b['kg']:.0f}kg " f"体积 {b['cbm']:.2f}m³ 单40HQ可装 {b['sets_per_40hq']} 套") print(f" 运费 {cur}{b['ship']:,.0f} | 保险 {cur}{b['ins']:,.0f} | CIF {cur}{b['cif']:,.0f} | " f"关税 {cur}{b['duty']:,.0f} | 到{market}清关前 {cur}{b['landed']:,.0f}") for mode, label in [("kit","裸机套件自行安装"),("prefab","模块房出厂预装")]: base = landed_total(b, market, mode) print(f" ├─ {label}: 落地总成本 {cur}{base:,.0f}") for tier, retail in zip(["A 廉价/DIY","B 中端","C 品牌"], RETAIL[market][name]): gp = retail-base bar = "█"*int(max(0,gp/retail)*30) print(f" │ {tier:10s} 零售 {cur}{retail:>7,} 毛利 {cur}{gp:>7,.0f} " f"{gp/retail*100:>3.0f}% {bar}") print() def sensitivity(): global US_DUTY print("="*94); print("【敏感性分析】基准: 配置A(10kWh+6.6kW) 美国 中端零售 $9,500"); print("="*94) items = CONF["A 10kWh+6.6kW"] print("\n① 关税情景（决定美国利润的第一变量）") scen = [ ("当前全额叠加", US_DUTY), ("取消对等关税(-30pp)", {k:max(0,v-0.30) for k,v in US_DUTY.items()}), ("回到2024年301口径", {"battery":0.11,"inverter":0.25,"pv":0.25,"bracket":0.25,"cable":0.25,"meter":0.25,"ems":0.25}), ("第三国转口(0关税)", {k:0.0 for k in US_DUTY}), ] saved = dict(US_DUTY) for nm, rm in scen: US_DUTY = rm b = bill(items,"US"); base = landed_total(b,"US","kit") print(f" {nm:24s} 落地 ${base:>6,.0f} 毛利 ${9500-base:>6,.0f} ({(9500-base)/9500*100:>3.0f}%)") US_DUTY = saved print("\n② 中国出厂价变动（澳洲 vs 美国，中端渠道）") for d in [-0.10,0,0.10,0.20,0.30]: tmp = {k:dict(v) for k,v in BUY.items()} for k in BUY: BUY[k]["cny"] = tmp[k]["cny"]*(1+d) bu = bill(items,"US"); ba = bill(items,"AU") lu, la = landed_total(bu,"US","kit"), landed_total(ba,"AU","kit") print(f" 出厂价 {d*100:+4.0f}% 美国 落地${lu:>6,.0f} 毛利${9500-lu:>6,.0f}({(9500-lu)/9500*100:>3.0f}%)" f" | 澳洲 落地A${la:>6,.0f} 毛利A${15500-la:>7,.0f}({(15500-la)/15500*100:>3.0f}%)") for k in BUY: BUY[k]["cny"] = tmp[k]["cny"] print("\n③ 汇率敏感度（配置A，中端零售固定）") base_fx = FX["USD_CNY"] for fx in [6.8,7.0,7.15,7.4,7.6]: FX["USD_CNY"] = fx b = bill(items,"US"); base = landed_total(b,"US","kit") print(f" 1USD={fx:.2f} 落地 ${base:>6,.0f} 毛利 ${9500-base:>6,.0f} ({(9500-base)/9500*100:>3.0f}%)") FX["USD_CNY"] = base_fx print() def cost_structure(): print("="*94); print("【成本结构拆解】配置A · 美国 · 中端零售 $9,500"); print("="*94) b = bill(CONF["A 10kWh+6.6kW"],"US"); base = landed_total(b,"US","kit") rows = [("中国出厂价", b["fob"]), ("海运+保险", b["ship"]+b["ins"]), ("美国进口关税", b["duty"]), ("清关+认证摊销+后端", base-b["landed"]), ("渠道毛利", 9500-base)] for n,v in rows: print(f" {n:20s} ${v:>7,.0f} {v/9500*100:>4.0f}% 零售 {'█'*int(v/9500*40)}") print(f"\n 关税/出厂货值 = {b['duty']/b['fob']*100:.0f}% 关税/落地成本 = {b['duty']/base*100:.0f}%") print(f" 预装 vs 裸机 落地成本差 = ${landed_total(b,'US','prefab')-base:,.0f}\n") if __name__ == "__main__": ap = argparse.ArgumentParser() ap.add_argument("--fx", type=float, default=None, help="USD/CNY 汇率") a = ap.parse_args() if a.fx: FX["USD_CNY"] = a.fx report("AU"); report("US"); sensitivity(); cost_structure() json.dump({"FX":FX,"BUY":BUY,"US_DUTY":US_DUTY,"FREIGHT":FREIGHT}, open("/tmp/kws_params.json","w"), ensure_ascii=False, indent=1)